The Commodity Housing Price Analysis Model--Take Haikou (China) as an Example

Abstract

In recent decade years, the real-estate industry in China has achieved unprecedented development. Correspondingly, the rapid rise in house prices has led the government to introduce a series of macro-control policies. Based on the main regulatory mechanism of the purchase restriction policy, we take Haikou as an example to analysis the probable influence on housing price. We first select indicators from three aspects: supply, demand, and macroeconomic environment, and then establish a gray correlation model to extract the key factors of strong correlation, that is, real- estate investment, CPI, residential housing construction area, residential housing completion area. Moreover, we establish a multiple linear regression model based on GM (1, n) to obtain the multi-function relationship between commercial housing prices and these four key indicators. After that, we establish a population- purchases demand function model to predict the price of commercial housing in the coming year after introducing the purchase restriction policy. More significantly, we conclude that the purchase restriction policy can effectively regulate housing prices in the short term, but the long-term effect is limit.