U.S. perceptions of nuclear security in the wake of the cold war: Comparing public and elite belief systems

Abstract

Our research adds new evidence to the continuing debate about capacities of mass publics to contribute to foreign and security policy processes. Focusing on U.S. beliefs and preferences about nuclear security in the post-Cold War era, we examine not only linear relationships among elite and mass belief structures, but also combinations of beliefs that may be precursors to policy coalitions. We examine attitudes and preferences about nuclear issues among two elite publics-scientists and legislators-surveyed in 1997, and among two samples of the U.S. general public surveyed in 1997 and 1999. We compare elite and mass belief structures using three different methods: descriptive comparisons of central tendencies, relational analyses using bivariate and multivariate regressions, and coalitional analyses using cluster analytical techniques. With each method of analysis we find evidence of similar belief structures and similar relationships between beliefs and nuclear policy preferences among our elite and mass samples.