Mass homicide by firearm in Canada: Effects of legislation

Abstract

Canada implemented a series of laws regulating firearms including background checks and licensing, references, psychological questionnaires, prohibition of paramilitary style rifles, and magazine capacity restrictions in order to decrease the incidences and deaths from mass shootings. The associated effects of these laws were examined over the years 1974 to 2020. A model was constructed using difference-in-differences analysis of firearms and non-firearms mass homicide incidences and death rates. Mass homicides were defined as a homicide due to one event involving three or more deaths. Incidence rates of mass homicide by firearm were found to be 0.11 (95%CI 0.08, 0.14) per million compared to a non-firearm mass homicide rate of 0.12 (95% CI 0.10, 0.15) per million. Mass homicide death rates by firearm were found to be 0.39 (95% CI 0.29, 0.49) per million compared to a non-firearm mass homicide rate of 0.47 (95% CI 0.34, 0.61) per million. Overall, there is a gradual declining trend in the incidence of mass homicide by firearm (IRR 0.97 (95% CI 0.96, 0.98)) and by non-firearm (IRR 0.97 (95% CI 0.97, 0.98)). The decline in mass homicide death rate by firearm and non-firearm is IRR 0.96 (95% CI 0.95, 0.97), and IRR 0.97 (95% CI 0.96, 0.98) respectively. No specific associated decrease in mass homicide incidence rates or death rates with firearms legislation was found after the implementation of background checks and prohibition of full auto firearms in 1980, by the implementation of references and psychological questionnaires in 1994, by the restriction of magazine capacity in 1994, the prohibition of paramilitary rifles in 1994, or licensing in 2001.