Future Food Security in Africa Under Climate Change

Abstract

Africa is a major hotspot of food insecurity with climate change and population growth as major drivers. Irrigation expansion can sustainably increase agricultural productivity and adapt crops to climate change. We use agro-hydrological, climate, and socio-economic models to quantify crop production with irrigation expansion and perform food security analyses for different adaptation scenarios for African countries under baseline and 3°C warmer climate conditions. We find that under a 3°C warmer climate the total food production in Africa can only feed 1.35 billion people, when the continent's population is expected to reach 3.5 billion, leaving a food deficit equivalent to 2.15 billion people. Increasing agricultural productivity with irrigation alone will not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency. Therefore, future food demand will likely be met by other means such as cropland expansion or greater reliance on imports which would further expose African populations to uncertainty from the volatility in global food prices.