Tundra in changing climate

Abstract

Both palaeogeographical reconstructions and general circulation modelsindicate that global warming is especially strongly manifested in high latitudes. In the case of the mean global temperature rise by 2°C almost the entire modern tundra zone would become potentially suitable for tree growth. Nevertheless, palaeobotanic data cannot be applied directly to estimating vegetation response to the global warming, expected in the 21st century,as they characterize a quasi-equilibrium state of ecosystems, which takes several centuries to be achieved. Low migration rates of trees, damage caused by fires and insects, processes of soil drying or paludification, influence of herbivorous animals and human activities may considerably slow down forest spread in tundra. Climate warming will probably cause a decline in the populations of Arctic species and extending ranges of some southern species of animals into the Arctic.