Identification of the age-period-cohort model and the extended chain-ladder model

Abstract

We consider the identification problem that arises in the age-period-cohort models as well as in the extended chain-ladder model. We propose a canonical parameterization based on the accelerations of the trends in the three factors. This parameterization is exactly identified and eases interpretation, estimation and forecasting. The canonical parameterization is applied to a class of index sets which have trapezoidal shapes, including various Lexis diagrams and the insurance-reserving triangles. © 2008 Biometrika Trust.