Digitalisation, structural change and the demand for social programs in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

Abstract

Big economic shifts often spark bold public demands. As digitalisation and artificial intelligence reshape economies, what do people expect from governments in response? While research on technological disruption has expanded in advanced economies, far less is known about how these transformations are unfolding in Africa or how Africans perceive them. This article addresses that gap by examining structural change and citizens’ responses to digital disruption in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using dynamic panel data from 36 African countries from 1995 to 2019 and Afrobarometer Round 8 surveys conducted between 2019 and 2022, covering 45,684 respondents across 32 countries, I show that higher digital diffusion is associated with declining agricultural employment shares, rising service-sector employment shares, and productivity gains that depend on complementary capabilities. I further show that respondents prioritise job creation and work-linked training over general education, business loans, or broader social spending. Rather than the monetary compensation that often features prominently in OECD debates, the dominant public demand in SSA is for productive inclusion through employment. This article discusses the implications of these findings for the kind of employment-rich, productivity-enhancing transformation needed to realise ‘digital dividends' and contributes to broader debates on the political economy of technological change, compensation, and inclusion in the digital age.