A comprehensive review on uncertainty of renewable energy and its prospect to fulfil Indonesia's renewable target

Abstract

Indonesia has targets on renewable energy (RE) development as shown in National Energy Policy. The RE plan should be carefully planned because it is so important. Uncertainty is a big problem in RE development. To handle correctly the uncertainty, it needs to understand all aspects about the uncertainty. A comprehensive review is needed to get a complete understanding of the uncertainty. After that, it can be known the prospects of RE implementation to reach the targets. This research has done a comprehensive review on uncertainty problems in power systems and has done an analysis about the prospects of Indonesia's RE to fulfil their targets. The research's aims are to find a method to handle correctly the uncertainty and to know the RE prospect to fulfil the targets. Review's results showed the appropriate generation expansion planning model to handle uncertainties is independent-Montecarlo simulation-Brownian motion by considering uncertainty on demand side, power plant, and transmission &distribution (T&D), energy resource, and government policy. The RE resources, the current situation of RE usage, the RE target, and the existing of government planning on RE power plants development showed RE has high prospects and capable to fulfil their target.