Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Alien Invasive Alligator Gar Atractosteus spatula in China

Abstract

Alligator gar Atractosteus spatula originates from North America but has been introduced into China recently. Considered an invasive fish, it may cause losses in the diversity and number of local species and in fish catch due to its predation on numerous aquatic animals in non-native habitats. A comprehensive study of this alien invasive species’ existing spatial patterns in relation to climatic variables is critical to understanding the conditions amenable to its distribution and controlling its further spread into potential range areas. We used MaxEnt and QGIS species distribution modeling to estimate the likely biogeographical range of A. spatula in China based on 36 validated distribution records and seven selected environmental variables. The highly suitable area was found primarily in a series of provinces extending from inland to coastal regions, covering southwest to south, central and east China. The model identified the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) and mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio10) as the strongest predictors of A. spatula distribution. The findings could offer scientific guidance for managing and preventing the spread of this invasive fish and hint at controlling invasive aquatic fauna.