Philippines: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Philippines

Abstract

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with Ecuador On September 25, 2015, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation 1 with Ecuador. Supported by positive terms of trade and large public investments, growth averaged 4.5 percent over the past decade, while social indicators improved. Reflecting Ecuador's goals of diversifying energy production and improving infrastructure and social equality, the overall fiscal position of the non-financial public sector (NFPS) deteriorated from balance in 2011 to a deficit of 3.5 percent of GDP in 2012–14, mainly driven by high capital spending. The poverty rate and the GINI coefficient fell, respectively, from 38 percent and 0.54 in 2006 to 22.5 percent and 0.47 in 2014, while the unemployment rate declined significantly. Financial stability was preserved, supported by dollarization. In 2014, growth moderated to 3.8 percent in line with developments in the region. Since the fourth quarter of 2014, the economy has been hit by external shocks and is slowing down. The sharp decline in the international oil price, by about half for the Ecuadorian mix, significantly undercut oil revenues. In addition, competitiveness is being eroded by the real appreciation of the exchange rate—by 16 percent year-over-year through June 2015.