Order in chaos: Ballot order effects in a post-conflict election?

Abstract

Ballot order effects are well documented in established democracies, but less so in newly democratizing countries. In this research note we analyze ballot order effects in the 2010 parliamentary election in Afghanistan. The election provides a first look at ballot order effects in a high stakes, post-conflict election. In this setting, we argue that limited cognitive skills and information are more likely explanations of potential ballot order effects than mechanisms of lacking effort or ambivalence of choice. However, we find no clear evidence of a positive effect on the vote share of a higher ballot position. This raises the broader question of how applicable anomalies found in political behavior are to post-conflict democracies.