Estimating groundwater recharge rates in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia under different combinations of model complexity and objective functions

Abstract

This study addresses the critical need for reliable groundwater recharge quantification by investigating the uncertainty associated with recharge estimation based on various combinations of model complexity and objective functions. Focusing on the Hombele catchment in the upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, the research aims to analyze parameter sensitivity under different model complexities and objectives while estimating groundwater recharge for the period 1986–2013. Employing a Monte-Carlo-based calibration scheme, the study fine-tunes model parameters using objective functions like KGE, NSE, LogNSE, R2, and VE across 10 combinations of model complexity and objective functions. Results identify FC, LP, and BETA as highly sensitive parameters, while UZL, K0, and MAXBAS show limited influence in all model complexity and objective function scenarios. The semi-distributed HBV-light model achieves calibration, validation, and overall period KGE (NSE) values of 0.89 (0.80), 0.80 (0.73), and 0.87 (0.77), respectively. Sensitivity analyses reveal significant impacts on model parameters and recharge estimation based on the chosen objective function and model complexity levels. Average annual recharge rates range from 185.9–280.5 mm when the HBV-light model is semi-distributed, contrasting with 185.3–321.7 mm under lumped model conditions, emphasizing the importance of considering these factors in groundwater resource assessments.