Spatiotemporal distribution of schistosomiasis transmission risk in Jiangling County, Hubei Province, P.R. China

Abstract

Objective This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal distribution of schistosomiasis in Jiangling County, and provide insights into the precise schistosomiasis control. Methods The descriptive epidemiological method and Joinpoint regression model were used to ana-lyze the changes in infection rates of humans, livestock, snails, average density of living snails and occurrence rate of frames with snails in Jiangling County from 2005 to 2021. Spatial epidemiology methods were used to detect the spatiotemporal clustering of schistosomi-asis transmission risk in Jiangling county. Results The infection rates in humans, livestock, snails, average density of living snails and occurrence rate of frames with snails in Jiangling County decreased from 2005 to 2021 with statis-tically significant. The average density of living snails in Jiangling County was spatially clustered in each year, and the Moran’s I varied from 0.10 to 0.26. The hot spots were mainly concentrated in some villages of Xionghe Town, Baimasi Town and Shagang Town. The mean center of the distribution of average density of living snails in Jiangling County first moved from northwest to southeast, and then returned from southeast to northwest after 2014. SDE azimuth fluctuated in the range of 111.68˚-124.42˚. Kernal density analysis showed that the high and medium-high risk areas of Jiangling County from 2005 to 2021 were mainly concentrated in the central and eastern of Jiangling County, and the medium-low and low risk areas were mainly distributed in the periphery of Jiangling County. Conclusions The epidemic situation of schistosomiasis decreased significantly in Jiangling County from 2005 to 2021, but the schistosomiasis transmission risk still had spatial clustering in some areas. After transmission interruption, targeted transmission risk intervention strategies can be adopted according to different types of schistosomiasis risk areas.