Forecasting energy consumption in the EU residential sector

Abstract

The present paper aims to introduce a top down methodology for the forecasting of residential energy demand in four European countries, namely Germany, Italy, Spain, and Lithuania. The methodology employed to develop the estimation is based on econometric techniques. In particular, a logarithmic dynamic linear constant relationship of the consumption is proposed. Demand is estimated as a function of a set of explaining variables, namely heating degree days and gross domestic product per capita. The results confirm that the methodology can be applied to the case of Germany, Italy, and Spain, whereas it is not suitable for Lithuania. The analysis of elasticities of the demand with respect to the gross domestic product per capita shows a negative value for Germany, −0.629, and positive values for Italy, 0.837, and Spain, 0.249. The forecasting of consumption shows that Germany and Italy are more sensitive to weather conditions with respect to Spain and an increase in the demand of 8% and 9% is expected in case of cold climatic conditions.