Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Perubahan Nilai Tukar di Indonesia Tahun 2006-2018

Abstract

This study aims to examine the determinants of the rupiah exchange rate during 2006-2018. The variables used in this study are real income, inflation, foreign exchange reserves and interest rates as independent variables and the rupiah exchange rate as the dependent variable, by conducting multiple linear regression tests. Based on the test of the coefficient of determination it is known that the independent variables (real income, inflation, foreign exchange reserves and interest rates) affect the dependent variable (exchange rate) of 76% Partially (t-test) shows variable real income (X1) and interest rates (x4) has a negative and significant relationship to the exchange rate (Y). While inflation (X2) has a positive relationship with the exchange rate and exchange rate (X3) and has a negative and not significant effect on the exchange rate. And Simultaneously (F-Test) between independent variables (real income, inflation, foreign exchange rates and interest rates) on the dependent variable (exchange rate) shows F-count (> F-table so it can be concluded that the Free variable (real income, inflation , foreign exchange reserves and interest rates) have a significant effect on the dependent variable (rupiah exchange rate). Keywords: Real income, inflation, foreign exchange reserves, interest rates and exchange rates. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti faktor-faktor penentu nilai tukar rupiah selama tahun 2006-2018. Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu Pendapatan rill, infasi, cadangan devisa dan suku bunga sebagai variabel independent dan nilai tukar rupiah sebagai variabel dependent, dengan melakukan uji regresi Linear berganda. Berdasarkan uji koefisien determinasi diketahui bahwa variabel bebas (pendapatan rill, inflasi, cadangan devisa dan suku bunga) berpengaruh terhadap variabel terikat (nilai tukar) sebesar 76% Secara parsial (uji-t) menujukkan Variabel pendapatan rill (X1) dan suku bunga (x4) mimiliki hubungan negatif dan signifikan terhadap kurs (Y). Sedangkan inflasi (X2) memilki hubungan positif dengan kurs dan cdangan devisa (X3)berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap nilai tukar. Dan Secara simultan (Uji-F) antara variabel bebas (Pendapatan rill, inflasi, cadngan devisa dan suku bunga) terhadap variabel terikat (nilai tukar) menujukkan F-hitung(> F-tabel sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel Bebas (pendapatan rill, inflasi ,cadangan devisa dan suku bunga) secara bersama-sama berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap variabel terikat (nilai tukar rupiah).