Analysis of Risk Factors for Tunnel Flooding Disasters Based on DEMATEL

Abstract

The growing frequency of extreme rainstorms has increasingly exposed tunnels to flooding risks, underscoring the urgent need for effective flood prevention and drainage measures. In this context, an evaluation framework for tunnel flood hazards was developed based on three criteria—hazard-inducing factors, hazard-formative environment, and disaster-bearing body—encompassing nine specific indicators. This study employs the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method to construct a causal analysis model and assess the interrelationships and influence levels of risk factors associated with tunnel flooding disasters. Rainfall intensity (C1), rainfall duration (C2), ground elevation (C4), road slope (C5), and impervious surface area (C6) exhibit high causal values, acting as external input factors that drive the occurrence of tunnel flooding incidents. Conversely, water depth (C3), tunnel drainage capacity (C7), emergency flood control measures (C8), and infrastructure aging (C9) display high centrality values, serving as internal factors that reflect the tunnel’s flood prevention capability and determine the extent of disaster losses. Simply enhancing tunnel drainage capacity from the perspective of internal factors alone is insufficient; optimizing the tunnel’s flood resilience requires a combined consideration of both internal and external factors.