Predictability of business environment within budgeting process – Is it connected with fluctuations of economy?

Abstract

This paper presents the results of the research focused on the analysis of firm´s ability to forecast the behavior of external environment and its influence on firm’s budgeting processes and its dependence on GDP fluctuations. The objective of the research was to verify whether the ability of firms to predict changes in business environment are influenced by the fluctuations of GDP. The authors have expected, that in case of higher fluctuations of GDP, the ability to predict changes in business environment will be lower. The authors have used the data obtained by means of questionnaire survey conducted in Czech Republic on the sample of 177 enterprises and other data obtained by the study performed in the USA and Canada. The study also presents empirical evidence on the capability of Czech enterprises to predict the behavior of primary budgetary elements, such as profits or sales volumes. The study shows the relatively high level of predictability of business environment changes indicated by Czech firms in comparison with the U.S. and Canadian companies, on the other hand, the study has not shown any significant dependence between GDP fluctuations and predictability level of the budgeting process.