Proposal of a Scenario Planning Process and Co-Design Tool for Developing a User-Centered Future Policy Agenda

Abstract

Background As uncertainties increase after COVID-19, the importance of establishing strategies and policies through future predictions at the national level is increasing. Accordingly, advanced overseas research institutes are discovering near-future policy agendas by incorporating design, participatory, and human-centered approaches into foresight, especially using design thinking as a problem-solving process and mindset. On the other hand, in the case of South Korea, there is still not enough design thinking methodology that can be used in the policy field for future prediction. Therefore, this study aims to define processes and core activities for various stakeholders participating in policy making to develop scenarios from an integrated and future perspective, and to propose a mindset, a future response policy design process, and a co-design toolkit. Methods This study is divided into a literature review, a service program, and toolkit development through co-creation workshops for policy researchers and the proposal of a design thinking-based future policymaking process. Through the literature review, core processes and activities based on foresight and scenario planning were derived, and design thinking-based foresight mindset themes including user orientation, integration, autonomy, openness, and future orientation were derived. In addition, based on the limitations of scenario planning for experts, the necessity of design thinking in foresight was investigated. Next, a co-design toolkit was developed to propose a practical scenario planning workshop service, and a study was conducted to verify this through a co-creation workshop for policy researchers. Results In order to find national-level near-future policy agendas, a design thinking-based future policymaking process was proposed so that policy researchers can develop scenarios based on usercentered, integrated, and future perspectives. The process was visualized using blue print, and four steps for participatory workshop operation, eight activities, 10 co-design tools, and five theme-based mindsets to utilize them were structured in terms of the interaction between service operators and participants. Conclusions The implications of this study are as follows. First, the design thinking mindset was redefined to suit the characteristics of the foresight study and was reinterpreted in connection with the use of scenario planning tools. Based on this, a workshop for policy makers was operated to verify a future policymaking process based on design thinking, and it was confirmed that design thinking is an effective tool and method for foresight by visualizing the mindset for each activity and suggesting it in blue print. Second, the service designer's facilitation area was expanded to co-design partners throughout the process for the creative foresight study. Third, through three support systems for continuous future research, a plan that can be used to foster creative future talent and to revitalize interdisciplinary convergence research in the future was proposed.