Development of a dynamics-based model for analyzing strategic water-environmental conflicts: systems thinking instead of linear thinking

Abstract

A new evolution in graph modeling for conflict resolution (GMCR), a robust methodology for conflict resolution, is presented in this research to incorporate the systems thinking concept into the conventional paradigm of GMCR so that the dynamic nature of water-environmental conflicts can be modeled, and better outcomes obtained. To achieve this objective, a methodology is developed in three phases: static, dynamic, and outcome-based analyses. To develop the methodology, the Tigris-Euphrates basin conflict in the Middle East over the past 30 years, as a real-life case study, is used to show the robustness and capabilities of the proposed approach. Finally, a sustainable resolution to the current conflict is proposed, and the results are discussed. The proposed methodology benefits from improving the existing and often static-based conflict resolution developments by considering the dynamic nature so that the true root causes of complex conflicts are addressed, better strategic insights achieved, and comprehensive resolution provided.