Statistical Features Based Approach (SFBA) for Hourly Energy Consumption Prediction Using Neural Network

Abstract

—In this paper, new statistical features based approach (SFBA) for hourly energy consumption prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron is presented. The model consists of four stages: data retrieval, data preprocessing, feature extraction and prediction. In the data retrieval stage, historical hourly consumed energy data has been retrieved from the database. During data preprocessing, filters have been applied to make the data more suitable for further processing. In the feature extraction stage, mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis are extracted. Finally, Multi-Layer Perceptron has been used for prediction. For experimentation with MultiLayer Perceptron with different training algorithms, a final model of the network was designed in which the scaled conjugate gradient (trainscg) was used as a network training function, tangent sigmoid (Tansig) as a hidden layer transfer function and linear function as an output layer transfer function. For hourly energy consumption prediction, a total of six weeks data of ten residential buildings has been used. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), evaluation measurements were applied.