Translating MC2 DGVM results into ecosystem services for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Abstract

Ecosystem services (ES) were conceived to emphasize the role of ecological processes in supporting societal needs and to allow their inclusion in the decision-making process. Currently climate change mitigation is one of the most important services ecosystems can provide to enhance sinks of greenhouse gas emissions as the planet warms and related extreme events take their toll on societies. Because ES cannot always be directly measured and because measurements are often cost prohibitive, process-based models are used to estimate their supply, delivery and/or value. We ran the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model for the conterminous US with/without land use for several future scenarios. We translated results into key ES such as carbon sequestration, which contributes to climate regulation, into a regulatory service or aboveground forest carbon into timber biomass, a provisioning service, and evaluated constraints to maintain them. By comparing projections with/without land use we illustrated differences between managed and natural lands and provided information to help the valuation of societally relevant services.