Priority Conservation Area of Quercus mongolica Under Climate Change: Application of an Ensemble Modeling

Abstract

As the primary secondary tree species in Northeast China, Quercus mongolica possesses significant ecological and economic value. This study employed the Biomod2 platform in conjunction with ArcGIS spatial analysis to assess the potential suitable habitat distribution area of Q. mongolica under current climatic conditions. Furthermore, it forecasted the distribution range and niche changes of potentially suitable habitats for Q. mongolica from 2022 to 2090 and pinpointed the key environmental factors influencing its distribution. The findings reveal that the total potential suitable area for Q. mongolica covers 74,994.792 km2, predominantly spread across Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and other regions. The primary determinants of suitable area distribution were peak temperature of hottest month, lowest temperature of coldest month, and altitude. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitats of Q. mongolica are anticipated to diminish to varying extents, with the distribution center exhibiting a tendency towards northward migration. Concurrently, the overlap among different climate scenarios is predicted to expand over time. This investigation facilitates a comprehensive understanding of Q. mongolica’s adaptation to climate change, enabling informed adjustments and serving as a valuable reference for the preservation and sustainable management of Q. mongolica populations.