Risk analysis model of sweet corn production using z-score and value at risk methods

Abstract

Sweet corn is one of the food commodities produced by farmers in Indonesia. In sweet corn cultivation, farmers face the risk of production originating form fertilizers, pets and weather changes. Production risks include the decrease of quality and quantity of production and farmers experiencing losses. The purposes of this study were to identify sources of farming production risk, to analyze the probabilities and impacts of risk sources, to formulate the overcoming risk strategies risk of sweet corn farming production. A total of 50 corm farmers were involved. The collected data were analyzed by using descriptive analysis, probability and impact analysis, the Z-score and Value at Risk (VaR). The biggest source of risk was pest attack with a probability of 9.63% and an impact of Rp 562.102,64/hectare followed by fertilizer with a probability 6.55% and an impact of Rp 536.600,03/hectare and weather/climate change with a probability of 2% and an impact of Rp 337.150,10/hectare. The preventive strategies used to handle pest risk sources were land sanitation and mitigation strategies, namely the provision of pesticides and insect for grasshoppers. Mitigation strategy was used to handle fertilizer risk that improving farmers' skills in fertilizing and giving the right type of fertilizer and dosage. As for climate/climate change, the preventive strategies used wark making drainage, making high beds, watering and growing or accumulating roots.