Choking or delivering under pressure? The case of elimination games in NBA playoffs

Abstract

Neoclassical economic theories foretell that individuals exert the most effort, and consequently produce their best performances, when the net returns to effort are highest. We scanned through 33 NBA seasons and analyzed 1930 playoffs games in order to test this prediction. Analysis of win probabilities in games where one of the two teams faces elimination from the playoffs, demonstrated that the threat of severe losses didn't lead to elevated level of performance. While previous studies analyzed mainly single-level performance in a stable environment, our results shed light on collective performance in a dynamic setting. These findings can be applicable to other realms as we suggest that managers should refrain from deliberate building of high-pressure environments with hopes of achieving performance enhancement effect among their groups.