A Statistical Risk Assessment Model of the Hazard Chain Induced by Landslides and Its Application to the Baige Landslide

Abstract

Landslides are usually caused by rainstorms and geological processes such as earthquakes and may have a massive impact on human production and life. The hazard chain of landslide–river blockage–outburst flood is the most common hazard chain caused by landslides. A database based on existing landslide cases was established in this study to investigate the assessment formulas of the risk of river blockage, dam stability, and peak flood discharge after a dam has broken. A risk assessment model of the landslide–river blockage–breaching hazard chain was established, including the downstream vulnerability. The case of the Baige landslide verified the applicability of the model. This model can be used in a landslide-prone area to predict whether a relatively massive river blockage will form after the landslide occurs, whether the landslide dam formed by the river blockage will breach in a short time, and the impact of the outburst flood on the downstream area.