Investment Risk Analysis of Municipal Railway Construction Projects Based on Improved SNA Methodology

Abstract

By analyzing all types of risks in the investment process of a municipal railroad construction project, 16 investment risk factors are extracted, and a network of investment risk factors and a comprehensive impact matrix of the project are constructed by comprehensively applying social network analysis (SNA) and the decision-making test and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. By analyzing the point centrality, proximity centrality and intermediate centrality of the SNA network, core risk factors such as insufficient operation and management level (degree centrality: 51.111) and cost overruns (in-closeness centrality: 93.75) are identified; through the correlation strength analysis of risk factors via the DEMATEL method, “policy–approval–schedule–cost” is clearly identified. Moreover, through the DEMATEL method, correlation intensity analysis between risk factors was clarified, and six key risk transmission paths were identified, such as “policy–approval–duration–cost”, “market–cost–operation”, etc., among which the cumulative impact coefficient of the “market–cost–operation” path reached 0.664. According to the results of the analysis of core risk factors and key risk transmission paths, targeted investment risk response proposals for municipal railroad construction projects are put forward with regard to four aspects: strengthening the control of core driving factors, curbing the deterioration of key results factors, blocking the risk of intermediate conduction factors, and resisting the impact of marginal risk factors.