Economic resources, childcare services, and son preference: a conjoint analysis of fertility potential in China

Abstract

Using a randomized experiment that we designed for the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey, this study conducts a conjoint analysis to explore the fertility potential among Chinese adults. We examine the separate impacts of different factors and their heterogeneity across social groups. The results suggest that fertility potential is context-dependent. In addition, greater economic resources and availability of childcare significantly increase fertility potential. However, preferences in terms of the care provider, family versus the market, vary by gender, educational level, and desired number of children. Notably, we also find that son preference no longer has a significant effect on fertility potential in China. In light of China’s current low fertility, our study suggests that childbearing behavior will become increasingly differentiated by socioeconomic status. Fertility-enhancing policies should focus on supplementing economic resources and improving access to childcare.