On the frontline of change: Climate vulnerability and adaptation among Lake Chilwa’s (Malawi) smallscale fishers

Abstract

Climate change threatens the sustainability of livelihoods in communities highly dependent on natural resources. While climate impacts on lakes are widely studied, limited knowledge exists on how fishing communities perceive ecological changes and how these perceptions shape their survival responses. To address these gaps, a study was conducted in February 2025 at Lake Chilwa, Malawi through a mixed-methods approach. Data were collected from 382 household surveys, five focus group discussions, and 28 key informant interviews, complemented by time-series meteorological and fisheries records (1991–2024) to validate perceptions. Findings indicate that communities perceive rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, declining fish catches, livelihood disruptions, and reduced fish species diversity and distribution. Secondary data confirmed significant trends, with maximum and minimum temperatures increasing at 0.04 °C/year and 0.009 °C/year, respectively, alongside declining rainfall variability (–0.286 mm/year). Most respondents reported major livelihood changes in the past three decades, with 57.1% citing reduced fishing income. Fisheries records corroborate these concerns, showing a sharp decline in annual catch from 2,000 tons in 2001 to 229 tons in 2022. Additionally, 56.8% observed reductions in species diversity. The lake is dominated by Barbus paludinosus (Matemba), Clarias gariepinus (Mlamba) and Oreochromis shiranus chilwae (Makumba) compared to the past. These ecological shifts were strongly linked to climate-induced shocks such as fluctuating water levels and periodic lake drying. In order to survive, modifying fishing techniques and locations, diversifying income sources, and community-based management is being conducted. These findings call for a multi-layered policy approach combining ecological restoration, adaptive fisheries governance, and livelihood diversification.