Spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 in Vietnam, 2015– 2018

Abstract

Despite strong commitments of the central and provincial veterinary authorities in Vietnam to control highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI-H5N1) in poultry and to diminish the risk of human infection, outbreaks continue to occur in poultry. This study describes the spatio-temporal distribution of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks in Vietnam for the period December 2014–April 2018 using the space-time K-function and the space-time scan statistic. The space-time K-function analyses showed statistically significant spatio-temporal clustering of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks in poultry during the study period of up to 50 days and 60 kilometres. The space-time scan statistic test identified three statistically significant space-time clusters of HPAI-H5N1 in the south of the country where the incidence of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks was greater than that expected if outbreaks were randomly distributed in space and time. The analyses indicated shortfalls in the effectiveness of control measures used to control HPAI-H5N1 throughout the study period. Development of a better understanding of the relative impact of HPAI-H5N1 control measures (depopulation of infected flocks, vaccination, movement restrictions) on space-time interaction would allow animal health authorities to focus their efforts on control measures shown to have the greatest relative effect.