Tropical Cyclone Day-off Orders, Warnings, and Avoidance Behavior

Abstract

Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons, cause fatalities and significant economic losses every year. Alarms, warnings, and mandatory orders from governments play a crucial role in helping people avoid the harmful impacts caused by natural disasters. In Taiwan, the typhoon dayoff order is a policy that mandates a day off from work and school for residents to stay put or evacuate from hazardous zones. However, implementing this order may result in economic losses when forecasts are incorrect, and storms change paths. Alternatively, the government could provide information and warnings about tropical cyclones, enabling residents to make avoidance decisions based on their current temporal and spatial circumstances. This article uses aggregate transportation time-series data to capture avoidance behavior in response to tropical cyclones. Results show that people respond to both alarms/warnings and government-mandated orders in differing degrees. This article further examines avoidance behaviors in response to similar intensities of tropical cyclones with and without mandatory orders, showing similar patterns and magnitudes of avoidance behavior in both regimes. Findings help inform policy decisions about the use of mandates and the issuance of critical information and warnings.