SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF RUPIAH LOANS PROVIDED BY COMMERCIAL BANKS AND RURAL BANKS

Abstract

According to SEKI data in 2020, DKI Jakarta is the province that has the highest average monthly value of rupiah loans provided by commercial banks and rural banks. Many factors can affect the size of the value. The amount of rupiah loans provided by commercial banks and rural banks in the previous months can affect the current value. The geographical conditions of an area can have an impact on the surrounding area. Likewise, the number of rupiah loans in DKI Jakarta Province is suspected of having mutual influence with surrounding provinces. The provinces that are directly adjacent to DKI Jakarta are Banten Province and West Java Province. The purpose of this study is to conduct spatio-temporal analysis of the amount of loans provided by commercial banks and rural banks. The data used is the monthly amount of rupiah loans provided by commercial banks and rural banks in DKI Jakarta, West Java, and Banten Provinces in a time period between January 2012 to July 2021. The GSTAR method has been used to analyze the spatio-temporal relationship. The GSTAR model formed is GSTAR(3,6,12) with differencing order of 1. Based on the model formed, it was concluded that the amount of loans provided by commercial banks and rural banks in the three provinces is related to each other spatially and temporally. The RMSE value for each of the models formed is 1.871 for Banten Province, 13.701 for DKI Jakarta, and 2.919 for West Java Province.