Use of the Auroral Boundary Index for potential forecasting of ionospheric scintillation

Abstract

The Hardy-Gussenhoven Auroral Dosing Model (HGADM) was developed to compute electron characteristic energy and energy flux values onto the global grid and is often used to generate the inputs for other phenomenological models. Forecasting auroral conditions is limited by rapid changes in the ionosphere due to variable solar conditions. However, through a statistical analysis of Auroral Boundary Index data we have developed a technique which allows us to forecast/predict the appropriate inputs to the HGADM, thereby providing a means of forecasting the characteristic energy and energy flux values. This paper will initially discuss the statistical analysis and the development of the forecast mode for the HGADM. We then discuss the possibility that aurora-based indices along with other environmental indicators can be correlated to ionospheric disturbances. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.