Representing qualitative social science in computational models to aid reasoning under uncertainty: National security examples

Abstract

Representing causal social science knowledge in models is difficult: much of the best knowledge is qualitative and ambiguously conditional, unlike the knowledge in “physics models.” This paper describes a stream of RAND research that began with qualitative models providing a structured depiction of casual factors creating effects. That has subsequently been extended to an unusual kind of uncertainty sensitive computational modeling that enables exploratory reasoning and analysis. We illustrate the approach with applications to counterterrorism, detection of terrorists, and nuclear crises. We believe that the approach will complement other approaches that can reflect social science phenomena [see other papers in this special issue of JDMS] and that the approach has broad potential within and beyond the national security domain. We also believe that it has the potential to inform empirical work—encouraging a transition from the step-by-step empirical testing of simple discrete hypotheses to the testing and refinement of more comprehensive causal models.