Modelling the Role of Human Behaviour in Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Transmission Dynamics

Abstract

The role of human behaviour in the dynamics of infectious diseases cannot be underestimated. A clear understanding of how human behaviour influences the spread of infectious diseases is critical in establishing and designing control measures. To study the role that human behaviour plays in Ebola disease dynamics, in this paper, we design an Ebola virus disease model with disease transmission dynamics based on a new exponential nonlinear incidence function. This new incidence function that captures the reduction in disease transmission due to human behaviour innovatively considers the efficacy and the speed of behaviour change. The model's steady states are determined and suitable Lyapunov functions are built. The proofs of the global stability of equilibrium points are presented. To demonstrate the utility of the model, we fit the model to Ebola virus disease data from Liberia and Sierra Leone. The results which are comparable to existing findings from the outbreak of 2014-2016 show a better fit when the efficacy and the speed of behaviour change are higher. A rapid and efficacious behaviour change as a control measure to rapidly control an Ebola virus disease epidemic is advocated. Consequently, this model has implications for the management and control of future Ebola virus disease outbreaks.