A predictive model for early death in elderly patients with gastric cancer: A population-based study

Abstract

Background: The mean age of gastric cancer (GC) patients has increased due to the aging society. Elderly GC patients with poor physical status tend to develop complications during the treatment courses, which cause early death. This study aimed to identify risk factors and establish nomograms for predicting total early death and cancer-specific early death in elderly GC patients. Methods: Data for elderly GC patients were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. These patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort and a validation cohort. The univariate logistic regression model and backward stepwise logistic regression model were used to identify independent risk factors for early death. Nomograms were constructed to predict the overall risk of early death and their performance was validated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, decision curve analyses (DCA), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) in both training and validation cohorts. Results: Among the 3102 enrolled patients, 1114 patients died within three months from the first diagnosis and 956 of them died due to cancer-specific causes. Non-Asian or Pacific Islander (API) race, non-cardia/fundus or lesser/greater curvature, higher AJCC stage, no surgery and no chemotherapy were all related to a high risk of both all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death. Higher T stage and N0 stage were only positively related to total early mortality, while liver metastasis was only positively related to cancer-specific early mortality. Based on these identified factors, two nomograms were developed for predicting the risk of all-cause and cancer-specific early death, which showed good performance with the AUC of the nomograms were 0.775 and 0.766, respectively. The calibration curves, DCAs, NRI, and IDI also confirmed the value of these nomograms. Conclusions: These nomogram models were considered a practical tool to identify the early death of elderly GC patients and help provide a more individualized treatment strategy.