Model Selection and Identification of Osteoporosis Risk Factors in Women to Improve Their Healthcare

Abstract

Osteoporosis is characterized by low bone mineral density leading to enhanced bone fragility and a consequent increase in fracture risk. The focus of this case-control study was to identify significant socioeconomic risk factors of osteoporosis in Pakistani women and examine how the risk increases for different levels of risk factors. A case-control study was conducted from November 2018 to August 2019 in two main hospitals in Faisalabad, Pakistan. Multiple logistic regression was used to explore the significant risk factors of osteoporosis and how the risk increases in cases (cases = 120) as compared to the control group (controls = 120) in the presence of these risk factors. The mean age ± standard deviation for cases and controls was 59.62 ± 10.75 and 54.27 ± 10.09, respectively. The minimum and maximum ages were 36 and 80 years, respectively. In addition to age, bone fracture, family history, regular physical activity, family size, use of meat, type of birth, breastfeeding, premature menopause, loss of appetite, and use of anticoagulants were significant risk factors with p-values less than 0.05. The risk prediction model with significant risk factors was a good fit with a p-value of 0.28, corresponding to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test value (χ2 = 9.78). This parsimonious model with Cox-Snell R2 = 0.50 (with a maximum value = 0.75) and Nagelkerke R2 = 0.66 showed an AUC of 0.924 as compared to the full model with all risk factors under study that exhibited an AUC of 0.949.