Assessment of the potential of the vocational education system of the Far East as a priority territory of Russia

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the study of the potential of the education system of the Far East from the position of ensuring the advanced development of the macroregion as a priority territory of Russia. The purpose of the work is to give a projected quantitative assessment of the educational system opportunities to meet the needs of the economy of the Far East by personnel with secondary professional and higher education. The methodology of the study is based on a comparative analysis of the results of forecasting the needs of regional economies in the personnel and graduates of the educational system. To forecast the personnel needs of the regions of the Far East, the author uses proven macroeconomic forecasting methods. To predict the number of graduates, a model in the form of a system of non-stationary difference equations is used. The methodology of long-term forecasting is based on models of production functions, substance transfer and balance models, as well as methods of economic and mathematical modeling, econometrics and applied statistics. The assessment of the ratio of coverage of the annual needs of the economy in personnel due to a variety of sources, the main of which is the local manpower (graduates and unemployed) and the external one (interregional migrant workers and foreign labor force). It is revealed that graduates of the higher education system, taking into account those coming to the Far East from other regions, in general, meet the annual need of the economy in personnel. Graduates of the secondary vocational education system cover less than half of the personnel needs of the economy of the Far East. It is found out that a low percentage of the needs of the economy covered by graduates of the educational system in some regions of the Far East is associated with a high migration outflow of young people outside the district. It is shown that the problem of personnel shortage in the region is solved by attracting foreign and interregional labor migrants to the region. At the same time, the possibilities of the educational system are sufficient to provide educational services to applicants from the local population. The ways of solving the problem of personnel shortage and improving the efficiency of the educational system through the use of internal resources of the regions are proposed.