Construction and application of a geopolitical setting evolution model in an area of geopolitical-strategic intersection: Taking Ukraine as an example

Abstract

Geopolitical setting research is the focus and hot spot of political geography in China. Significant progress has been made in the areas of conceptual framing, connotation, analytical framework, spatial differentiation, system simulation, and so on. However, the study of geopolitical setting in geopoliticalstrategic intersection areas has not been fully developed. This study constructed an evaluation model of geopolitical setting in geopolitical- strategic intersection area based on the space and power of geopolitical strategy, by combining the theories of geopolitical setting and geopolitical potential in political geography, and realism, liberalism, and constructivism in international relations, and by giving consideration to the philosophy of inter-subjectivity. This study also took Ukraine as an empirical study to verify the reliability of the model. The results show that: 1) On the whole, Ukraine's geopolitical setting tends to be improving, but it fluctuates violently, and will be intermittently turbulent in the future. 2) Under the influence of historical and cultural origin, military material power, strategic investment willingness, economic interdependence, geographic and spatial distance, and other factors, Russia has maintained a large geopolitical potential advantage in Ukraine. 3) Germany's geopolitical potential in Ukraine fluctuates greatly from year to year, and is on the rise in recent years due to the influence of geoeconomic factors. The geopolitical potential of France and the United States in Ukraine has been lower than Russia and Germany. In the future, the geopolitical potential of France will increase slightly, while that of the United States will decrease. The geopolitical setting evaluation model of geopoliticalstrategic intersection area proposed in this study has been verified by historical data, and the assessment results have a high fitting degree with the evolution of domestic political situation in Ukraine. The model has reasonable reliability, and can provide reference for the geopolitical setting evaluation in other geopolitical- strategic intersection areas.