A Bayesian Model Based on the Bow-Tie Causal Framework (BT-BN) for Maritime Accident Risk Analysis: A Case Study of the Bohai Sea

Abstract

Maritime accidents are low-probability, high-consequence events, making mechanism analysis crucial for risk mitigation. Existing studies often focus on single scenarios or factors and frequently mix pre-incident observational data with subjective unsafe behavior labels, limiting causal-chain construction for proactive risk prediction. To address these issues, this study proposes a Bow-Tie-based causal-chain Bayesian network, establishing a hierarchical inference chain of “observed parameters–unsafe causes–accident types” to capture causal interactions among multiple factor categories and enable inference from pre-incident data to potential unsafe causes and accident types. Applied to the Bohai Sea region, sensitivity analysis quantified the effects of risk factors under varying conditions on collision, sinking, and grounding probabilities. The results show that the method can infer accident types and unsafe causes using only pre-incident data, achieving over 70% accuracy and closely matching accident investigation findings. Moreover, it reveals layer-by-layer mechanisms of key contributing factors and provides targeted management interventions, supporting quantitative decision-making for maritime regulators and shipping companies, with significant practical applicability.