Are U.S. trends a barometer of future cancer transitions in emerging economies?

Abstract

The currently high cancer incidence rates in the U.S. and other high-income countries have been strongly affected by the acquisition of environmental and lifestyle risk factors that accompanied socioeconomic growth in the second half of the last century. The very same factors are now operating in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) undergoing rapid socioeconomic transition. A parallel is drawn between the past cancer trends in the U.S. and those anticipated in LMIC transitioning towards higher levels of socioeconomic development. We expect to see a major upsurge in the (still low to intermediate) cancer incidence and mortality rates in LMIC over the next decades, which coupled with population aging and growth, would translate to a scale of individuals diagnosed with, living and dying from cancer unparalleled in history. On account of resource constraints and organizational limitations, prevention strategies need to be prioritized in LMIC.