A probabilistic framework for modelling false Title IX 'convictions' under the preponderance of the evidence standard

Abstract

Conviction in criminal trials in the USA, the UK and many other common law countries requires establishing a defendant's guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. By contrast, in Title IX proceedings at American colleges and universities, allegations of wrongdoing are adjudicated according to a much lower 'preponderance of the evidence' standard. Victims' rights advocates correctly argue that a lower burden of proofmakes it easier to ensure that the guilty are punished. But there is also a mathematically inevitable corollary: a lower burden of proof increases the probability of concluding that the innocent are guilty. This article provides a framework for using information regarding false conviction probabilities in criminal trials to model the probability of false guilty verdicts in Title IX proceedings in American colleges and universities. The quantitative results presented herein show that an innocent defendant faces a dramatically increased risk of conviction when tried under the preponderance of the evidence standard as opposed to under the beyond a reasonable doubt standard.