The asymmetric influence of the positive and negative IOD events on China's rainfall

Abstract

Rainfall anomalies over southern China are found to be asymmetricly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with a far stronger influence from positive IOD (pIOD) events. A greater convection anomaly and an equivalent-barotropic Rossby wave train response occurs during pIOD events than during negative IOD (nIOD) events. Over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and South China Sea (SCS), an associated low-level anomalous anticyclone strengthens the southwesterlies during boreal fall (September, October and November, SON), when a pIOD matures. The increased moisture flux gives rise to the anomalously high rainfall over southern China. During its developing phase (boreal summer, June, July, and August, JJA), the influence of a pIOD event on the contemporaneous rainfall over southern China is weak, but a JJA pIOD index is highly correlated with fall rainfall. Therefore, this index can serve as a potential predictor for variations of boreal fall rainfall over southern China.