Climate Conflicts 2.0? Climate Engineering as a Challenge for International Peace and Security

Abstract

This article reviews the conflict potential of climate engineering (CE) against the background of possible security im- plications of climate change. A conceptual framework is used to compare the technologies for carbon removal and solar radiation management regarding different characteristics and to assess the causes and drivers of potential conflict. Although CE measures may possibly reduce climate-related conflicts, they could also intensify already existing international conflict structures or add new dimensions of conflict, in particular if their impacts are highly uncertain, quick, strong and heterogeneous, where the sever- ity can vary regionally. While carbon engineering requires large resources and thus may contribute to resource conflicts, solar engineering is usually less costly and more efficient, but has numerous anticipated side-effects that could cause novel conflicts and security implications in the international system. To avoid serious conflicts, regulative mechanisms and institutional structures are needed, building on the ENMOD-Convention that restrains military or hostile use of environmental modification. Given the high uncertainties, anticipative and adaptive governance structures that involve stakeholders and their perspectives are necessary.