Estimating ensemble flood forecasts' uncertainty: A novel "peak-box" approach for detecting multiple peak-flow events

Abstract

Ensemble flood forecasts are an established tool to provide information about the uncertainty of runoff predictions. However, their interpretation may not be straightforward, especially when dealing with extreme events; therefore, the development of new tools to enhance their understanding and visualization is necessary. Recently, the so-called "peak-box" approach has been developed to help decision makers in the interpretation and verification of peak-flow forecasts, receiving positive feedbacks within the hydrological community. However, this method has proven to be limited when multiple peak-flow events occur within the forecast, being unable to separate close discharge peaks. The aim of this paper is then to develop a new algorithm designed to accomplish this task. To do so, we consider runoff probabilistic forecasts obtained with a coupled hydrometeorological flood forecasting system formed by the high resolution meteorological Ensemble model COSMO-E and the hydrological model PREVAH, for the small Verzasca basin, Switzerland, during October and November 2018. The application of this new method, despite the limitation given by the small sample size considered in this study, indicates a successful implementation: the new algorithm is able to distinguish among different events and to provide sharper and more skillful forecasts, and its verification yields slightly better timing estimations compared to the former approach.