LONG-TERM TREND OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS

Abstract

Using the Hilbert–Huang Transform method, we investigate the long-term trend of yearly mean total sunspot numbers in the time interval of 1700–2015, which come from the World Data Center—the sunspot Index and long-term solar observations. The main findings of this study are summarized below. (1) From the adaptive trend, which is extracted from the yearly mean total sunspot numbers, we can find that the value gradually increases during the time period 1700–1975, then decreases gradually from 1975 to 2015. (2) The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle is extracted from the yearly mean total sunspot numbers and confirms that a new grand minimum is in progress; the Dalton Minimum, the Gleissberg Minimum, and low level of solar activity during solar cycle 24 (the part of the new grand minimum) all can be understood as minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle. (3) Based on the adaptive (overall) trend, and the 100-year and longer timescale trend of yearly mean total sunspot numbers, we can infer that the level of solar activity during the new grand minimum may be close to that during the Gleissberg Minimum, slightly higher than that during the Dalton Minimum, and significantly higher than that during the Maunder Minimum. Our results do not support the suggestion that a new grand minimum, somewhat resembling the Maunder Minimum, is in progress.