The role of sidewalk availability in gentrification: A longitudinal study of U.S. neighborhoods and racial/ethnic composition

Abstract

Introduction: Gentrification may displace lower-income populations, particularly in neighborhoods where the majority of residents identify as Black, Indigenous, and/or People of Color (BIPOC). While the health impacts of gentrification and displacement have been explored, little is known about how pedestrian infrastructure (e.g. sidewalks) may be associated with gentrification. This study assesses whether sidewalk availability is associated with gentrification and changes in BIPOC population, with attention to differences between urban and suburban/small-town contexts where patterns of demographic change may diverge, including potential change in BIPOC population by context. Methods: Utilizing the Logitudinal Tract Database and U.S. national sidewalk availability, we conducted a longitudinal observational study of 26,498 gentrifiable census tracts limited to urban/suburban/smal town areas across the US in 2010–2020. Sidewalk availability was defined as the proportion of Google Street images within a given census tract that have at least one sidewalk. We used logistic regression to examine the association between sidewalk availability and gentrification and linear regression to assess changes in BIPOC residential composition between 2010 and 2020 in gentrified neighborhoods. Sensitivity and supplementary analysis was conducted for a stratified models by BIPOC thresholds (40 %, 50 %, 60 %) and urban/suburban outcomes. Results: Sidewalk availability was significantly associated with higher odds of gentrification in all tracts (OR: 1.119; 95 % CI: 1.032–1.212; p = 0.0065) and in BIPOC-majority tracts (OR: 1.216; 95 % CI: 1.088–1.359; p < 0.001). In gentrified neighborhoods, sidewalk availability was associated with a reduction in the percentage of BIPOC residents (−0.016 per 0.1-unit; 95 % CI: −0.027, −0.006; p < 0.002) and a significant decline in the absolute number of BIPOC individuals (−81.2; 95 % CI: −114.78, −47.69; p < 0.001). Supplementary analyses indicated divergence by context: in urban gentrified tracts, each 0.1-unit higher sidewalk availability was associated with −0.020 percentage points in BIPOC share (95 % CI –126.5, −57.2; p < 0.001) and −91.86 BIPOC residents (95 % CI −126.51, −57.22; p < 0.001); in suburban/small-town gentrified tracts, it was associated with +0.036 percentage points (95 % CI: 0.001, 0.071; p = 0.042) and +165 BIPOC residents (95 % CI 45.1, 285.8; p = 0.007). Conclusion: Our results demonstrate a consistent relationship between sidewalk availability and gentrification, although different associations with BIPOC population change by context, contributing to the ongoing discourse on gentrification, urban development, and neighborhood change.