A pitfall in using the characterization of granger non-causality in vector autoregressive models

Abstract

It is well known that in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model Granger non-causality is characterized by a set of restrictions on the VAR coefficients. This characterization has been derived under the assumption of non-singularity of the covariance matrix of the innovations. This note shows that if this assumption is violated, then the characterization of Granger non-causality in a VAR model fails to hold. In these situations Granger non-causality test results must be interpreted with caution.