Risk evaluation method for highway roadside accidents

Abstract

In order to strengthen the safety of highway roadsides, it is necessary to take targeted measures according to the roadside hazards, so there is an urgent need to develop research on risk evaluation of highway roadside accidents. Based on accident simulation analysis and the form of accident after vehicles run to the roadside, the rollover risk of roadside accident is classed into four grades, namely, no departure from the ground, slight departure from the ground, one or two turnovers, and more than two turnovers. The factors involved in the causes of roadside accidents of different rollover risks are studied, and the thresholds of driving speed, sideslope gradient, and sideslope height are given. A Bayesian network for risk evaluation of roadside accidents is constructed. Based on the factor thresholds for the causes of roadside accidents, the calculation methods of the probability of different rollover risks of roadside accidents are carried out according to a single factor, two factors, and three factors. The typical cases of roadside accidents are analyzed and the calculation results of the Bayesian network show that the probability of one or two turnover accidents is 0.939, which is consistent with the results of roadside accident simulation tests, proving the accuracy of the risk evaluation methods for highway roadside accidents.