Multi-level determinants of land use land cover change in Tigray, Ethiopia: A mixedeffects approach using socioeconomic panel and satellite data

Abstract

This study examined land use land cover change and its determinants in Tigray, Ethiopia and its livelihood zones. We used socioeconomic panel, and satellite data, and applied a mixed-effects model to analyse the factors influencing land allocation among different uses, and transition matrix to analyse land cover dynamics. The results revealed that; land use choices were influenced by plot level factors (such as plot elevation, distance, soil type and quality, and land tenure), household characteristics (such as education, dependency ratio, plot size and number owned, income, livestock and asset, perception of climate change, and access to market and main road), and community level factors (precipitation, product price, population density and livelihood zone variations). Transition matrix analysis showed that between 1986 and 2016, 12.8% of forest was converted to bare land, 6.26% bare land was converted to pasture, and 5.84% of cropland was converted to forest. However, net deforestation occurred in most of the livelihood zones. Therefore, local communities faced environmental and socio-economic challenges from capital constraints induced land fallowing, land fragmentation, and unmanaged land cover change. The study recommended sustainable land use planning and management, market linkages, improved access to roads, forestry subsidies, land tenure security, and land consolidation programs.