Evidence gaps in tropical plant responses to climate change

Abstract

Tropical plant species are highly vulnerable to climate change but remain underrepresented in global syntheses of species responses to climate change. Here, we systematically reviewed and synthesised evidence from 309 studies reporting tropical plant species responses to increases in temperature and changes in precipitation. We scored the direction of change for 2555 species-climate-responses including changes in survival and growth, and physiological and morphological traits. Our database included information for 1435 species across 124 families, but the direction of change varied across species, response traits and climate drivers. From a systematic assessment of the quantity, quality and agreement of evidence we found low overall confidence for each species-climate-response, largely due to a lack of repeated studies. The majority (85%) of species-climate responses were scored from a single study, reflecting large evidence gaps across tropical taxa and geographies. Given that ecosystem services are underpinned by species traits, these evidence gaps limit our ability to anticipate and manage changes in ecosystem service provision under climate change. Our synthesis highlights the need for replicable, decision-relevant research to support ecosystem management, biodiversity conservation and nature-based solutions in the tropics under mounting climate pressures.